November 10, 2020
October began with a strong rally in the S&P 500 and the index rose about 5% through October 12. This strength seems to have been carried by a hopeful mood for a secondary bipartisan fiscal stimulus package that would provide further support to those impacted by COVID-19.
However, as more time passed it seemed “talks” were a façade as a deal never came. This failure of congress to deliver a fiscal stimulus package, when added to the anxiety of increasing COVID-19 cases and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, seemed to lead markets along their sharp decline from their mid-month high to the end of the month.
October, the S&P 500 Index lost -2.66%, the NASDAQ Composite Index decreased -2.26% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index returned -4.52%. Developed markets struggled similarly to domestic markets as evidenced by the MSCI EAFE Net Total Return Index decreasing -3.99%, but Emerging markets outperformed the world as the MSCI Emerging Net Total Return Index gained 2.06%
The Tactical Defensive Fund started October with a 50% equity, 50% defensive allocation. The long-term Cyclical Trend model was fully invested while the short-term Dynamic Trend model was fully defensive. Markets rallied in the beginning of October and after a few days, the Dynamic Trend model’s underlying indicators improved enough to allow some equity exposure pushing the allocation in the Fund to 75% equity and 25% defensive on October 6th.Due to increasing domestic uncertainty , markets sold off from their October highs and the Dynamic Trend model hit a price stop on October 28 forcing the Fund to sell the equity exposure it had added on October 6.The Cyclical Trend model remained fully invested for the whole of October, and the Fund closed the month with a 50% equity, 50% defensive allocation.
The Stadion Tactical Defensive Fund is a conservative equity fund seeking to participate in expanding market cycles and retains the ability to become 100% defensive if conditions deteriorate. Over a full market cycle, the Stadion Tactical Defensive Fund tends to have a conservative profile that combines two elements of trend following: a focus on longer-term cyclical trends (the core portfolio) and the balance of risk-mitigation and returns-seeking among shorter-to-intermediate trends (the satellite portfolio). The goal of these collaborative strategies is capital appreciation as measured across full market cycles.
In September, the Tactical Defensive Fund’s A-share returned -1.88% versus its benchmark of the Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Index that returned -1.34%.
To view the most recent performance for the Stadion Tactical Defensive Fund, click here.
The NASDAQ Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market and it is highly followed in the U.S. as an indicator of the performance of stocks of technology companies and growth companies.
The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 stocks and is a widely recognized, unmanaged index of common stock prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange
The MSCI Emerging Markets Net Total Return Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.
The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is an unmanaged free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada.
The Morningstar Target Risk Index family is designed to meet the needs of investors who would like to maintain a target level of equity exposure through a portfolio diversified across equities, bonds and inflation-hedged instruments. The Morningstar Moderate Target Risk Index seeks approximately 60% global equity exposure.
One cannot invest directly in an index.
The Report’s commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, and recommendations represent the personal and subjective view of the author and are subject to change at any time without notice.
There are additional costs and potential risks associated with investing in domestic and international Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Investment in the Fund is subjective to investment risks, including, without limitation, market risk, management style risk, risks related to “fund of funds” structure sector risk, fixed income risk, tracking risk, risks related to ETF net asset value and market price, foreign securities risk, risks related to portfolio turnover and small capitalization companies’ risk. Since each Stadion fund is a “fund of funds”, an investor will indirectly bear fees and expenses charged by the underlying ETFs and investment companies in which a Stadion Fund invests in addition to a Stadion Fund’s direct fees and expenses. More information about these risks and other risks can be found in the Fund’s prospectus.
There are risks associated with the potential investment of the Fund’s assets in fixed income investments which include credit risk, interest rate risk, and maturity risk among others. These risks could affect the value of investments of the Fund, possibly causing the Fund’s share price and total return to be reduced and fluctuate more than other types of investments. Additional information about fixed income risks can be found in the Fund’s statement of additional information (“SAI”). Investment Objective: Seek long-term capital appreciation.
The Fund’s foreign investments generally carry more risks than funds that invest strictly in U.S. Assets including currency risk, geographic risk, and emerging market risk. Risks can also result from varying stages of economic and political development, differing regulatory environments’ trading days and accounting standards, and higher transaction costs of non-U.S. markets.
Not all investors are eligible for each share class, including I shares. Performance and expense may vary between share classes.
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The Stadion Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. An investment in the Funds involves risk, including loss of principal.